2015: Will the bull run end?


It’s hard to believe another year is nearly over – soon we’ll turn our calendars to 2015. Based on historical seasonality patterns it could be a very good 12 months on Wall Street.

For starters, next year is the third year of President Obama’s presidential term and according to BTN Research, the S&P 500 has been positive 19 out of the last 20 times in year three of the presidential election cycle.

2015 also happens to end with the number 5 – significant because the Dow has averaged a much stronger return in these years than in years ending in 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 7, 8 or 9. StockTwits reported recently that the Dow has been up in the fifth year of a decade 11 out of the past 12 times with the single down year in 2005 producing a barely negative return of 0.61%.

I pay attention to seasonal trends in US equities. However, I don’t allow them to guide my trades. Seasonality gives the climate, but it’s the stock ticker telling me the weather.

 ♦ Please note that my readings will change without notice,  so please don’t buy or sell solely based on anything you read in this blog. ♦

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